Ongoing Testing with Free Mulligan / Paris Mulligan

[Maqi]

So, today I had a first test session of about 5 hours together with hitman. We played some games with the free mulligan rule. Here's how things went down.

1st matchup was 4c DarkBant Goodstuff (me) vs. 4c UBRW Staxx (him)

His Staxx list was pretty standard. He added iirc 3 lands to the deck and took out some random stuff.
My Goodstuff deck was running 37 lands. I pretty much gave up on Force Spike / Mana Tithe style counters and some random elves. I played a slightly higher curve with turn 2 acceleration (aka Wall of Roots / Sakura-Tribe Elder) and the usual Goodstuff + a Tezzeret package (some artifact lands, Baleful Strix and Thopter combo).

The games where smooth but slow. The first 3 turns where usual setup turns devoted to mana development.

Game 1 I beat him down with Tarmogoyf. Restoration Angel seals the deal where it blinks the otherwise Tamiyo-locked Tarmogoyf for the win.

Game 2 and 3 he beats me in semi-close games with Humility.

Games were fun. The matchup seemed slower, but not much different to "spoils"-games.

2nd matchup was Esper Control (me) vs. Rock Midrange (him)

My list was pretty stock, I think. running 37 lands and 5 mana stones.

I beat him very easily 2:0.

Since Rock (and I guess basically any 3+ colored core green deck) won't curve out consistently anymore, control has much time to set up.

I cannot recall, in all honesty, to have played such a lopsided matchup within the last 2 or 3 years.

That first impression leads me to believe, that control will be very strong and (non-blue) midrange won't stand a chance against it.

3rd matchup was RDW (me) vs. Rock Midrange (him)

He used the same Rock list as in the Esper game.

He beat me 2:0 rather easily with the help of Bloodbaron of Vizkopa in both games. And Karmic Guide into Bloodbaron (again!) in both games...

I also stumbled on my draws. The matchup felt unfavourable but winnable, given the right draws/starting hands.

4th matchup was Esper Control (me) vs. RDW (him)

He won 2:1. Matchup felt hard for Esper. Especially game 3, where he had the perfect curve of T1 Goblin Guide into T2 Smash the Smithereens my mana stone into T3 Searing Blaze my Trinket Mage, felt unwinnable. But I guess that happens sometimes, right?

Overall Impressions

1.) Free Mulligan feels smooth. The probability to hit at least 2 lands in your initial opener is about 80% with 37 lands in your deck. The chance to not have at least 2 lands after your free mulligan equals to about 4% (2/10 * 2/10) since you basically have two shots with the free mulligan. Therefore I think that about 37 lands will be the magic number in a world with a free mulligan (might be a bit more for some and a bit less for other decks; RDW for exmaple seems to get along with 33-34).

2.) Utility lands are of great importance. You will be flooded more often and you desperately need the ability to make use of those "flood" lands.

3.) 4c/5c-Aggro is dead. Though I have not tested it against other decks I goldfished some games with Blood aggro and it felt horrible. Kird Apes / Loam Lions and Nacatls cannot be turned on reliably, you won't curve anymore and you have no real reach in the lategame (as RDW does).

4.) 1 and 2 drop aggro is where it's at, it seems. That means RDW and WW seem to be viable. Can't think of anything else.

5.) Games are fun. But I found the games to be fun with Spoils also. As I said, the early turns are more for setup. The game basically starts at turn 3 most of the time.

6.) Green centered Elf decks get worse. Elves get worse in general. That is mostly because you cannot guarantee the perfect curve or simply will have to keep more hands that don't have an elf and get them as bad topdecks later.

7.) I goldfished Bant Midrange and immediately unsleeved the deck and built Esper. It just felt very weak on the goldfish. Going Land, Land, Land into Kitchen Finks into Restoration Angel is just bad. Sure, I had some good goldfishes, but not enough at all. Most of the time you are forced to keep semi-slow hands that really don't get there against Control.

8.) I predict a Metagame of UW(x) Control vs. RDW  and a third deck that beats RDW and loses to Control.

I will continue testing. I'll tell you what I find out. Cya!

[Vazdru]

thump up for your quick impressions and your effort!
looking forward to read more 

[hitman]

Here some of my first impressions of highlander without spoils mulligan.

At first some facts about the decks I played:

Staxx 33 lands + Maze + Tabernacle + around 12 Mana Artifacts
Rock 34 lands + Maze + 6 'Elves' + Tithe + Wall of Roots + Sylvan Ranger
RDW no changes to the normal state with 30 lands + Mox Diamond (laziness wins today)

To the matches:

1st Match: dice roll -> me
Maqi said the most. All I have to add is that he takes a free mulligan in game one and I went down to 6 cards in game three.

2nd Match: (He missed this I think)
4C Goodstuff (him) vs RDW - dice roll -> me

1st Game: I have a good start with some good dudes and finsh him off before he found his lifegainer.

2nd Game: I had a slow start and he managed to hold me back with Clique removing Magus of the Moon + Abrupt Decay + Witness (AD) + Ph. Image (Witness -> AD). Ruination destroyed all of his lands but he topdecked two of them and starts to beat me again with Image + Confindant. In the end I reached a draw with Flame Rift before his final attack.

3rd Game:
Not much memories but I believe I took a free mulligan and won.

RDW feels slower and I would definetly play at least 2 lands more. But in my oppinionn RDW is still getting stronger especially in game 2/3 when your opponent can dig for his silverbullets.

3rd Match: dice roll -> him
Maqi said everything. He violated me and had absolutly no chance to win. He simply cleaned the board, droped PW and countered when necessary. My Spotremoval was useless most of the time and the deck feelt extremly inferior.

4th Match: dice roll -> him
In game one I mulligained to 6 wich gets good at the point he started with t1 Black Vise + Rishadan Port. Game two I took a free mulligan again. The rest was said by Maqi.
The fact that even RDW is getting slower gave decks like Rock with their mix of Discard/Lifegain/Acellaration/Removal the opportunity to set themselves up in time to beat the ticking clock.

5th Match: dice roll -> him
1st game i decided to keep a greedy one-land-hand and gets punished right away. The other games felt easy. I believe 37+5 stones are too much in his deck.

My First Resume: ( I don't want to repeat everything I agree with Maqi)

1) Without the Spoils Mulligan games are getting slower

2) Green centered Elf-Decks are still playable! Not having the perfect curve isn't needed all time because your opponent is slower too.

3) The Dice Roll felt less important since early cruical plays are more limeted

4) Going down to 6 cards doesn't feel like an frustrating autoloss

All in all it was a first test and I don't want to overvalue my impressions, but at the moment it strengthens my oppinion that a free Mulligan is the right way to go.

Looking forward for new test sessions!
hitman

[Maqi]

Test session #2 with the Free Mulligan took place. Again Hitman and myself played some matches for about 5 hours. Here's how things went down.

Matchup 1: Jund Scapeshift (me) vs. Rock Midrange (him)

Game 1: I'm on the play and Pernicious Deed away his Mox Diamond and Dryad Arbor => gg
Game 2: He has everything and spams the board with KotR, Titan and Obzedat. I Scapeshift for 24 ftw.

2:0

Game 3 + 4: He scoops two quick games in both of which I T1 Duress/Thoughtseize him. Both times he had to keep shaky hands that depended on a specific part which I just took away from him.

4:0

Game 5: He's on the play. I can answer everything perfectly. Sc. Ooze for his Stronghold, Pulse for his Titan, Bolt for his F. Shaman and so on.
Game 6: Don't remember exactly what went on. He scoops rather quickly iirc.

6:0

Matchup 2: Jund Scapeshift (me) vs. Bant (him)

Game 1: I'm on the play. I have Garruk WIldspeaker into Huntmaster into Pernicious Deed his board => gg
Game 2: I missed my third land drop and died to Intuition/Loam.
Game 3: I cannot answer his Titan that came into play via GSZ.

1:2

Game 4: He's on the play and has a T1 Aether Vial followed by a Sylavan Library. I lose easily.
Game 5: I cannot answer his Titan. I lose.

1:4

Matchup 3: Jund Scapeshift (me) vs. RDW (him)

Game 1: I lose to Blood Moon.
Game 2: I lose to Flames of the Blood Hand which he casts while I try to Primal Command for 7 life and Thragtusk...

0:2

Matchup 4: Esper Control (me) vs. RDW (him)

Game 1: This game is depressing. He draws 12 Mountains out of 20 cards. I have SDT which just cannot find a kill in time. He casts Wheel of Fortune and easily kills me within one turn...
Game 2: I win rather easily but cannot recall how.
Game 3: He wins a close one.

1:2

Game 4: He's manascrewed but I lose nevertheless because I don't draw any lifegain.
Game 5: I have a god draw of Propaganda, Ghostly Prison, Spellskite, Timely Reinforcements, Baneslayer Angel, Snapcaster Mage and double Counter backup.
Game 6: He has Mishra's Ankh to which I lose without a chance.

2:4

Matchup 5: Esper Control (me) vs. Bant (him)

Game 1: He has T1 Land, Mox Diamond into Loam. Then finds an Opposition and Dryad Arbor + Elf lock me down some time. He cannot find a kill in time whatsoever and my Planeswalkers take over a long and grindy game.
Game 2: He has to take a Free Mulligan and gets screwed. I win.
Game 3: I race him with Timely Reinforcements Tokens and an Elspeth. He summons Titan and threatens to take control of the game. I lose my Elspeth because I did not spot his Stirring Wildwoods (we both are exhausted and begin to make horrible mistakes...). I therefore lose this game which I should have won on the back of Elspeth.

2:1


Overall Impressions

1.) The Free Mulligan seems good. Mana flood and screw happen a bit more often than with Spoils. But not very much. Games go a little bit longer.

2.) The games are about one and a half turns slower in the beginning.

3.) Because of this tempo shift, Natural Order => Titan seems way stronger. It won many games. Much more than under spoils conditions is my impression. I think that is because you usually do not have a very good board presence by the time the Titan hits play when compared to the spoils meta.

4.) RDW has become stronger but the matchup is not unwinnable for most decks. Nevertheless it seemed to have a positive matchup vs. every deck I played against it. You have to have specific hoser cards against RDW for sure.

5.) Since you often have to keep shaky hands, discard spells seem to have gotten stronger.

6.) Mana Tithe / Force Spike / and Daze are still very good. Players "hunger" for a specific land drop where they will want to tap out for their big drop. Also, since you often have to keep slower hands, those counters are a good way to stay in the game when your opponent happens to have the perfect curve.

7.) I'm still unsure whether I like Free Mulligan or Spoils mulligan more. As for how the games itself develop, free mulligan seems to maybe be a bit better. As for deckbuilding, it seems that many archetypes just die without the spoils option. I don't know what I prefer.

EDIT:
8.) Every deck needs to have a solid plan for the lategame. Moreso than before. Be it Reach (like RDW), Primeval Titan, Helm-Combo, Thopter/Sword or something along those lines.


Testing will continue. Our next step will be to test some Aggro lists that might be more competitive under Free mulligan conditions - namely Naya, Maverick and WW. Updates will follow.

[Tabris]

I just want to thank you for the data mining keep up the good work Thomas