Wanted: Decks to Beat / Where are the tiers?

[Maqi]

Hello everybody!

Lately I’ve been browsing the internet on the lookout for Germany’s highlander scene. The result of my endeavor: There’s isn’t much of it.
So maybe I lost my googlemojo and miss the HL-Mekka by just an inch whenever I try to find it. But maybe â€" only maybe â€" there just isn’t much to find. That is besides magicplayer.org - of course - and some T8 lists.

That means there isn’t much reliable data that let’s us define tiers for highlander (for those of you that don’t know the concept of “tiers”: tier approximately means rank. You can find it being used for example in the IT-, financial or Automotive-Branch. It is also used in other “nerdesque” sports à la Street Fighter: Sagat would be god tier, Ryu and Rufus would be Tier A whereas Dan would end up being bottom tier.

I propose the following project: Let’s define the hypothetical highlander metagame that we would have if we had similar tournament attendances as the Legacy or Standard format.
   
You ask: “Why?” “What’s that !$§% good for?” “I know little Timmy always brings his BigWurm.dec to the tourneys, good ol’ Johnny has his “High Tide” deck and that arrogant prick Spike always pilots some kind of aggrodeck.”
Bottom line is: You know your meta.

I hear you guys.

You’re completely right. This project does not tell you anything about “your” highlander format. That will always be locally different and (because of low attendance) rather random.
What this project can do however, is to provide an ideal type. This will give us a deeper understanding of the format. A format, whose whole potential is yet to be discovered.

Allright my fellow magickers! What are the steps that must be taken? Just follow me…

Tiers in Magic are defined through matchup statistics. Let’s construct the following scenario:
3 decks called A, B and C
Deck A beats deck B
Deck A beats deck C
Deck B beats Deck C
Therefore deck C loses against the other two decks

We conclude:
Deck A = top tier
Deck B = mid tier
Deck C = bottom tier

Granted, this is a simplified model. Because of the random factors that are intrinsic to every magic game, we should rather construct the matchup concept as a probability variable. For example deck A beats deck B on a 6 to 4 basis. Or let’s sum that up to 100%: Deck A vs. deck B = 60:40

The matchup outcomes must be computed through test runs. So we need to play a series of games between to contenders. In the end we want to derive a trend from those tests so that we are able to say: Out of 100 games between two decks, deck A won 72 games whereas deck B won just 28 games. This can be expressed in matchup context: A vs. B is approximately 70:30

The above already shows us one way to build a matchup. It is the empirical prove of a matchup.

However we also want to look beyond mere statistical probabilities. We want to analyze the inner workings of a deck-vs-deck matchup. Therefore we must extract the essence of a matchup. I’ll give an example:

Empirical evidence: 20 games of MonoRedBurn vs. UW-Control yielded the following results: 13:7. This leads us to a matchup of 65:35

Theoretical evidence: MonoRedBurn beats UW-Control because UW-Control has no relevant clock on the burn deck. Furthermore it runs too many dead cards (like WoG, Moat etc.). Only in about one quarter of the games is UW-Control able to resolve relevant threats (cards that gain life, e.g. Baneslayer Angel et. al.)

(the above example is only a guess. I haven’t (yet) tested the matchup in a more analytical and precise way.)

Now that we know “what” exactly we must do, we need to know with “which deck archetypes” we have to do our testing.
I propose the better placing lists from the last HL-GrandPrix. Decklists that placed in tournaments with less than 20 players should not be taken into consideration.

Here are the standings from HL GP 7 after swiss

1. Reanimator 7-0-1
2. UWG Oath Control 6-0-2
3. UG AggroControl 6-1-1
4. Naya Zoo 6-1-1
5. Mono U Staxx 6-1-1
6. UG AggroControl 6-1-1
7. Bant Aggro 6-2-0
8. 5c Good Stuff
____________________________
9. Bant Aggro 6-2-0
10. 5c Staxx 6-2-0
11. Naya Zoo 6-2-0
12. Dark Bant AggroControl 5-0-3

Metagame Breakdown

23x 4-5c Goodstuff
15x UW(b/r) Control
12x Naya
12x Monorot (b)
9x UG(r)
7x Elves!
6x Staxx
5x Reanimator
5x Boros
4x RG Beats
4x WW
3x Mono U Control
3x Bant
2x GW
2x 4-5c Zoo
2x GBw Recursion
2x Oath Control

I will do my own testing. I’m very thankful to those that want to provide help and test matchups on their own. Please post your results!
To get things started and minimize working time I propose test series of 20 games per matchup. That should give solid insight for a specific matchup.
(We should start testing matchups within the field of decks that placed top 8 at the GP)

[Vazdru]

Hi Maqi,

feel free to evaluate Season IX and X of our Highlander Online League 

I don't have much time for and would be glad if anyone else finds out which decks performed well and which did not.

http://www.magicplayer.org/forum/index.php?topic=273.0

Vazdru

[Mythrandir]

Hi Maqi,

feel free to evaluate Season IX and X of our Highlander Online League  

I don't have much time for and would be glad if anyone else finds out which decks performed well and which did not.

http://www.magicplayer.org/forum/index.php?topic=273.0

Vazdru

I agree, our league has some good data, since most of the reports have the names/archtypes of the decks. If i have time next week, ill try to summarize the results of our last 2 seasons.

[Vazdru]

Tabris was kind enough to make a list of the matches in Season IX

UB-Reanimator vs UWR Staxx 2:1
Elves Gwb vs UBg Reanimator 2:1
Oath vs B/w Control 2:1
Elves Gw vs B/w Control 1:2
4c zoo vs 5cc 2:0
WW vs Domain Aggro 2:1
WW vs Elves GW 2:1
5cc vs UBG Landfall 2:1
UBW Armageddon Control vs Hypergenesis 2:0
Hypergenesis vs Oath 2:0
Domain Aggro vs Oath 2:1
4c Zoo vs GW Enchantress 2:1
RG Beasts vs UG-Aggro Control 2:1
5c Zoo vs Gwb Elves 2:1
Oath vs Domain Aggro 2:1
Elves GW vs Reanimator 2:1
4c Zoo vs Boros 2:0
Reanimator vs Oath 2:1
BW Control vs 4c zoo 2:0
5cc vs Oath 2:1
4c Zoo vs UBG Recursion 2:1
AGgro Loam vs RG Beasts 2:1
5cc vs Elves Gwb 2:0
Elves GW vs UB Reanimator 2:0
Elves GW vs Aggro Control 2:1
5cc vs Elves Gw 2:0
UG Aggro Control vs 5c Zoo 2:1
UWB control vs 5c Zoo 2:1
Hypergenesis vs Domain zoo 2:1
Hypergenesis vs GWR Zoo 2:0
Elves Gwb vs BW control 2:0
UWB Control vs RDW 0:2
Hypergenesis vs 5cc 0:2
Ug Aggro control vs UBG Reanimator 2:1
4c Zoo vs Elves Gwb 2:1
UWG aggro control vs RDW 1:2
4c Blood vs 5cc 2:0
WGR zoo vs Hypergenesis 2:0
Battle of Wits vs Enchantress 2:0
5c Aggro vs Reanimator 1:2
Oath vs UGb Survival 1:2
5cc vs Bant 2:0
UGB Control vs 5cc 0:2
UG Aggro Control vs 3c Zoo 2:0
Hypergenesis vs 5c aggro 2:0
UGB Landfall vs Battle of Wits 2:0
Oath vs Elves 2:0
Hypergenesis vs RG Beasts 2:0
Alara Aggro vs Bant 2:0
Rwu Staxx vs UG Aggro Control 2:0
5cc vs Aggro Control 2:0
UG aggro control vs 5c zoo 2:0
WB Control vs 5c Zoo 1:2
UG Aggro Control vs WW 2:0
UGB Landfall vs 5cc 2:1
WW vs Elves Gwb 2:1
4c Blood vs UGb Landfall 0:2
Elves Gwb vs UR Counterburn 2:0
5cc vs Bant 2:0
Oath vs 5cc 0:2
Bant vs WW 0:2
WB Aggro vs WW 0:2
Elves GW vs Elves GW 2:1
MonoG vs 5c staxx 2:1
Hypergenesis vs UGb Landfall 1:2
5cc vs 5c Aggro Control 0:2
Dream Halls vs UG Aggro Control 2:0
UG Aggro Control vs Hypergenesis 2:1
Hypergenesis vs Elves Gwb 2:1
WW vs WGR Zoo 1:2
Aggro Loam vs 5cc 0:2
BW Aggro vs WGR zoo 1:2
Turbofog vs Elves GW 2:1
Bant vs 5c aggro control 1:2
Elves Gwb vs 5c Aggro control 0:2
UG Aggro Control vs Oath 2:1
Elves Gw vs UW Control 1:2
Aluren Combo vs Oath 2:1
GWR zoo vs UW Control 1:2
GWR Zoo vs 5cc 0:2
UR Counterburn vs Staxx 2:0
MBC vs Oath 2:0
Alara Aggro vs MBC 2:1

[Tabris]

so any further discussions ? I would like to post the results on the blog, so people who are not reading the forum can anticipate how the meta looks like.

[coldcrow]

Imho DTB are:

RDW, Zoo (Naya+x), U/G+x, 3c/4c/5c Goodstuff, oath, various combo decks (Aluren,Hulk/Pattern,Reanimator,Heartbeat,Tide), MUC and the various kinds of stax/ramp decks.

Reanimator is probably the most dangerous deck in the format, since it operates with very few mana (for a combo deck) plays a quite solid manabase and has very few bad matchups.

[Vazdru]

I agree, our league has some good data, since most of the reports have the names/archtypes of the decks. If i have time next week, ill try to summarize the results of our last 2 seasons.

[Mythrandir]

I agree, our league has some good data, since most of the reports have the names/archtypes of the decks. If i have time next week, ill try to summarize the results of our last 2 seasons.

Ups, forgot about this. sorry =/ Here goes, for Season X:

br goblins VS  5 color zoo 2:0
naya-zoo VS  5c goodstuff 2:1
Fishy Monoblue  VS  UBg reanimator 2:0
Bant VS  GW Elves 2:0
rb golbins VS  GB 2:0
UG-AggroControl  VS  (GB-Aggro) 2:0
rb goblins VS grixis ramp, wildfire 2:1
WB Discard VS 5c Goodstuff 2:0
5C-Alara-aggro   VS UG-aggrocontroll  2:1
WB Discard VS White Weeny 2:0
BWG Rock  VS   MonoB[g] - Control 2:0
Bant VS  3 colour Goblins? 2:0
4c-stax VS Rbg-Goblins 2:0
UG-AggroControl VS  BR Goblins 2:0
Wb Angel Stax VS  Urw Control 2:0
Urw-Control VS UBG-Reanimator 1:2
w/b discard control/lifegain VS Aggro elves 0:2
aggro elves) VS r/g/b goblin zoo 2:1
RDW VS WW 1:2
Bant VS Rock 2:1
(aggro elfen) VS  (ww) 2:0
5cc Vs  Bant 2:1
Mono Green Ramp VS Bant 2:0
aggro elves VS  Mono u control 2:0
MonoB VS WW 2:1
hotband VS UGramp 2:1
WRB-Staxx VS  URW-Control 2:1
Hypergenesis VS  Aggro Elves 2:0
5C-Alara,McFlurrys-aggro     VS   GBW-Rock 2:1
5C-Blue-Control VS     MBC with green 2:1
5C-Alara     VS     WRB-Staxx 2:1
UGr VS Uwr-control 2:0
Aggro-Elves VS UGB-Reanimator 0:2
MUC VS  4c-Staxx 2:0
WRB-Staxx VS  MUC 2:1
Bg Control  VS  UBg Reanimator 1:2
MBC  VS    UBW Control 2:0
Owling Mine VS 5cc 2:0
WRBU-STAXX VS WRB-Staxx 2:0
WRB-Staxx VS 5C-Control 1:1
br goblins VS bant 2:1
WB Discard VS WBG Rock 2:1
5c-Aggro VS UBg Reanimator  0 : 2
R Sligh VS  UWr LD 1:2
br golbins VS 5color stax 2:1
UGw AggroControl VS UBg Reanimator 1:2
Mono U Art Control VS UWr LD 1:2
hotbant VS RBW Staxx 2:0
RDW VS  HotBant 2:0
Time Sieve Combo VS  WRb Stax 2:0
Aluren VS  Reanimator 2:0
WGB Rock VS GUr Ramp 2:0
UGwr AggroControl  VS UBg Reanimator 0:2
ubg-reanimator VS monoR 0-2
RWB Staxx VS UWb 0:2
Goblins  VS G/B Recursion 2:1
Goblins  VS Stax 2:0
RDW  VS BW Discard 2:0
Goblins VS GBW Rock  2:1
Goblins VS B/W  2:1
5cc VS Bant with R 2:0
WGB Rock VS 5cc 2:0
WW  VS UGrRamp 0:2
5C-Control VS UW-Control 1:2
5c GoodStuff VS  Reanimator 0:2
Ubw-combo VS Rb-Goblins 2:0
Reanimator VS  MUC 0:2
RDW VS   BR Goblins 2:0
4C Zoo VS U/W/g Oath  2:1
4C Zoo VS UWr 2:1
MBC VS RG Beatz 2:1
5C-Alara-aggro     VS    UW-Control 2:0
5CC VS  Zoo 2:1
5CC VS MCg 2:0
rb goblins VS  uw ctrl 2:0
RDW VS   4c Staxx 2:0
4c control VS  Reanimator 1:2
RWB aggro 1 VS  hotbant 2
5cc vs reanimator 2:0
5cc VS  BR gobos 2:0
hotbant VS MonoB splash G Control 2:1
RDW VS  RDW 2:1
wbg-midrange VS  moroR 1-2
Heartbeat VS  RDW 2:0
UBg Reanimator VS  RB Goblins 2:0
wgb-hulkcombo VS  monored 1-2
5c goodstuff VS Hulk combo 0:2
RDW) VS MBC 2:1
hotbant VS rb goblins 2:0
5C-Alara-aggro VS   Hot-Bant 2:0
Blue-Bant VS  GB-Rock 2:1
WRB-Staxx VS  BW-Discard 2:1
WRB-Staxx VS  RG Beatz 2:1
BW-Discard VS  UW-Control 1:2
Wildfire Swans VS  Elves! 2:0
RDW VS 5CC 2:1
rb goblins VS wr stax 2:0
UBg Reanimator VS RDW 2:0
UBg Reanimator VS  5c Control 2:0
MBC VS 5c PW Staxx 0:2
4c 187 VS UBW Control 2:0
WRB-Staxx VS High tide 1:2
BluePrison VS  5CC 2:1
RDW VS JUND Landfall Valakut 2:0
WRB-Staxx VS MBC 2:1
GBWu Hulk VS 5CC  2:1
3c Goblins VS RG 1:2
4C Zoo VS 5cc 2:0
5C-Alara.aggro   VS  Blink182 + Venser 2:1
5C-Alara-aggro  VS RB-Goblins 2:0


Well, a lot of aggro (RDW, gobos, elfs, 5C aggro), Bant, reanimator, and control (mostly staxx, my 5cc, some MBC and UW). Combos were plentiful but with only 1 game per archtype (mostly played by Nastaboi).

I have a total of 110 decks in this list, 72 being aggro/aggroish. If i counted correctly.

So, to sum up: There is still plenty of aggro. Grave hate is still needed, IMO. Combo sees some play, but from this list i can't really see if it's capacle of dominating or no. Control is still viable with loads of different ways to go (just like aggro).

All, in all, the meta seems balanced with the tip of the scale going a bit into aggro, which i think it's not a really big surprise.

Of course being a meta from an online free league makes it a bit specific.

Any thoughts? I hope i got everything right.

[Tabris]

thank you.

[Tabris]

http://blog.magicplayer.org/2011/01/11/statistic-overview-of-the-current-highlander-league-meta/

[Maqi]

Thanks very much!